Thursday, January 9, 2014

Happy New Year

Happy New Year

The calendar has turned over and it’s officially 2014 and the Red Sox are World Champions.  What could be better?  Am I right?  How about a repeat?  That would be outstanding but right now; I’m just looking forward to the season.  We’re about a month and a half away from Spring Training and 4 months away from baseball starting up again and what have the Red Sox been up to?

Well, not much.  It’s been a surprisingly quiet offseason with more players leaving than coming in.  I’m not saying that’s a bad thing by any means but I was expecting more moves by now.  The offseason still has a month or so to go and I expect the Sox to make a couple moves still but I’m a little shocked that they’ve been so non-productive this offseason.

First, let’s talk about the departures.

The Red Sox have lost nearly a third of their starting lineup from last year.  Catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia is gone; he signed a 3 year deal with the Miami Marlins.  The deal is worth $21 million and there are rumors the Sox offered 2 years at $16 million.  If true, that means that Salty choose years over dollars and he is from Miami so I guess it makes sense.  I really like Salty but with 2 big catching prospects down in the minors not far away from coming to Fenway, I get the Sox not wanting to go the extra year.  I think in the end, this will not go well for him.  Miami is a HUGE stadium and his offensive numbers are sure to take a dive.  However, the team is very young and has some very good pitching prospects and Salty will be a good mentor for these kids.  I’m hoping for success for him but with that park and that uncertainty in management, I see it being diasterous.

Jacoby Ellsbury, a fan favorite, especially for the ladies, also left in free agency.  He signed with the hated Yankees for $153 million over 7 years.  I don’t blame the guy.  That’s a lot of money and a lot of years.  I’m glad the Sox didn’t offer a long term deal, though I hear they did offer a 6 year deal.  Ellsbury gets hurt a lot and truthfully, I don’t think he’s worth $21.8 million a year.  Especially when you factor in, he’ll be getting his $21 plus million when he’s 35, 36 and 37.  Speed guys seem to age well but not one that’s consistently getting hurt.  It certainly is a gamble for the Yanks and they have the money to gamble like this so good for them.  I think you’ll see his power numbers increase slightly but betting on him to play a full season in half of the contract years is a stretch.  Good luck Ellsbury, I’ll clap for you on your first at bat at Fenway, but after that, you’ll hear the boo-birds.

Shortstop, Stephen Drew did not accept the Sox qualifying offer and is testing the free agency waters.  Unfortunately for him it’s not going so well.  So far, the only team that has showed some interest has been the New York Mets, but they seem unwilling to go multiple years.  It’s still a possibility that he resigns with the Sox and if that happens, I see Xander Bogaerts moving to 3rd this year and Will Middlebrooks being trade bait.  If he does so somewhere else, I see Xander taking over the starting shortstop role and Will starting at 3rd.  Either way, I’m good with it.  I like Drew and think he can be just as good if not better if he resigns.  This will be one to watch for the next month.

Now let’s talk about the additions and re-signings.

Mike Napoli has been re-signed and I agree with this one big time.  There are 2 players that I think took to Boston and its fans.  They are Jonny Gomes (who’s signed for this year already) and Mike Napoli.

When I saw Napoli partying it up in Boston with fans after the parade, I thought, this guy loves Boston, we need to resign him.  The Sox also got him at a bargain for only $32 million over 2 years.  While it’s a lot of money, it’s a short contract and I think that’s a good thing with Naps and his degenerative hip.  He put up 23 homers and drove in 92 RBI last season which isn’t too shabby for his first season in Fenway.  I know he strikes out a ton but he has a ton of power and he’s a fan favorite, also his transformation to a first baseman was really good, as he’s become a great defender over there.

One area the Sox were so strong in last year was the bullpen and the Sox strengthened that by acquiring relievers Burke Badenshop and Edward Mujica.

Badenshop came over in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for Luis Ortega.  He’s very effective against right-handers, owning a career .254 average against, and in the last 2 seasons he’s been even better, sporting a .234 against them.  He adds depth and reliability to the front end of the bullpen.

Edward Mujica is a flamethrower acquired via free agency.  He spent last year with the NL Champion St. Louis Cardinals and posted a 2.78 ERA with a very high strikeout rate.  The Sox signed him for 2 years at $9.5 million to shore up the bullpen.  Mujica lost the closing role in St. Louis but has been effective in that role in the past and saved 37 games last year.  Not only does he provide a late-inning bridge to closer Koji Uehara but he also provides some insurance in case Uehara gets hurt or becomes ineffective.

With Salty leaving, the Sox were left with a glaring hole at catcher.  They have some hot young prospects down in the minors, but they are still a year or two away from seeing full time duties in the majors so the Sox needed a short term replacement.  They filled that need by signing A.J. Pierzynski.

Pierzynski was signed to a 1 year deal worth $8.25 million.  I think it’s a good fit as A.J. is an excellent offensive catcher with well respected game calling skills.  While he may not have as much power as Salty, he hits at a better clip, .283 career and .272 last year.  He does have some pop, hitting 17 homers last year and 27 the year before.  He doesn’t walk much, only 11 times last year and never more than 30 in a year in his career but he also doesn’t strike out much, never has touched more than 78 in a year.  He makes contact and that’s generally a good thing.

With a good backup in David Ross, the signing looks very good on paper.  It also serves its purpose by allowing some time for young catching prospects, Blake Swihart and Christian Vasquez, to groom a little in the minors.

There is still a lot of time between now and Opening Day for the Sox to make additional moves so I’m hoping they are not done.  I’d like them to add another bat to supplement the loss of Ellsbury and Salty but if not, they’ll have to rely on young guys Xander Bogaerts, Will Middlebrooks and Jackie Bradley Jr. to come through in a big way.

Right now the starting lineup would look like this:

Shane Victorino – RF
Xander Bogaerts - SS
Dustin Pedroia – 2B
David Ortiz – DH
Mike Napoli – 1B
Jonny Gomes / Daniel Nava – LF
Will Middlebrooks – 3B
A.J. Pierzynski – C
Jackie Bradley Jr. - CF

I’ll keep you posted with any future deals.

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