The Green Monsta Report

While the off-season isn’t quite over and the team still has some holes, I think it’s a good time to look at who the Red Sox have picked up this year and give my thoughts on them and predictions for next year.  Overall, I like what they’ve done and how they seem to be trying to change the culture of the team.  It looks to me that they are getting back to the fun loving fan favorite type of players that Boston fans will eat up.

Ryan Dempster (SP)

While Dempster is getting up there in age (will be 36 in May), he does bring with him experience and reliability.  He’s started 28 games or more in each of the last 5 seasons and staying healthy will be a welcome sight for the starting pitching core.  Dempster also is used to playing in a very hitter friendly park spending most of his career in Wrigley Field and part of last year in the very generous Ranger Stadium.  He has a 3.74 ERA in his last 5 seasons and 65 wins.  Most importantly he doesn’t walk a ton of guys (a little over 3 per 9 IP) and though his fly ball rates are a little high I think he’ll be a nice addition to the back end of the rotation.  He’ll most likely be the 4^th or 5^th starter and I think 13-15 wins is reasonable.

My prediction -  14 – 9, 3.85 ERA, 175 K’s, 65 BB’s, 202 IP and a WHIP of 1.28.

Shane Victorino (OF – most likely RF)

Will become a fan favorite right away with his hustle and personality.  Fun loving and charismatic will be welcome sight to the fans and most importantly the clubhouse.  He’s 32 years old and again brings with him reliability.  He’s had 130 or more games every year since he’s been a full time starter.  Generally over 140 plus minus 2011 where he only played in 132 games.  A career .275 hitter and I see no reason why that can’t continue.  By no means a power hitter but his speed and Fenway Park will see an increase in 2B and 3B.  Though not a premier base stealer, he should be able to swipe 20+ bases and he’ll be an asset in the OF.  He’ll cover a lot of ground and in RF will be a nice compliment to Ellsbury in CF.

My prediction – 145-155 games, .270 AVG., .340 OBP., .800 SLG., 170 hits, 35 2B, 11 3B, 10 HR, 62 RBI, 32 SB, 48 BB.

Stephen Drew (SS)

While people still have a sour taste in their mouths from his big brother J.D., I think Stephen is different personality wise and should fit in nicely with the Sox.  He shows his emotion more and Boston fans need to see that.  He’s coming off a broken leg and last years totals were well below his career norms.  I think coming back from a leg injury like that is going to take some time and being another year removed from that should help.  Before 2011 and 2012, Drew was pretty healthy, playing in 130 or more games for 4 straight years and 150 or more in 3 of those.  Hopefully he’ll stay healthy and can get back to his normal career numbers.  He’s a .260 hitter with some power.  I think he’ll benefit greatly in Fenway park and could potentially hit 20 HR’s and have 40 2B’s.  Very similar to Victorino but I believe he has more power.  Fenway could help him immensely if he gets more patient at the plate.

My prediction – 150+ games, .270 AVG., .320 OBP., .820 SLG. 165 hits, 44 2B, 6 3B, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 5 SB, 50 BB.

Joel Hanrahan (CP)

To me, this is the biggest offseason addition and should shore up the closer role pretty well.  I’m not sure what happens with Andrew Bailey with this addition but judging by the tweets of Bailey it looks like he’s happy with the acquisition and may translate nicely into a set-up type role if he’s willing to accept that Hanrahan is the better pitcher.  Hanrahan has been a full time closer only 2 years but he’s been pretty lights out in that role.  His ERA the last two years is 2.24 and he has 76 saves for a crappy Pittsburgh team.  He strikes out a ton and has fantastic stuff.  My only question will be how he adjusts to a bigger market and if he does struggle at times, how he deals with adversity that he didn’t see in Pittsburgh.

My prediction – 65 games, 2.11 ERA, 1-3, 40 saves, 65 K’s, 25 BB’s with a WHIP of 1.11.

Koji Uehara (RP)

Another under-rated offseason addition that no one seems to be talking about.  Uehara is a very good relief pitcher and though he struggled a little in his first season with Texas in 2011 he was lights out last year posting a 1.75 ERA.  He has experience pitching in the AL East as he was a member of the Orioles from 2009-2011.  He’s a bit old (38 on Opening Day) and while that’s a concern he’s been pretty reliable the last 3 years as he’s been in 35+ games.  He’ll fall into that 7^th or 8^th inning role that was so miserable the last two years (or at least when Bard decided he didn’t want to throw strikes anymore) whichever is not Andrew Bailey.  He also rarely walks batters and we all know how badly that’s needed from the bullpen.

My prediction – 40 games, 2.72 ERA, 2-2, 2 saves, 50 K’s, 10 BB’s with a WHIP of 0.98.

David Ross (C)

This addition puzzled me as I’m just not quite sure what his role will be.  I’m guessing that he’ll be the back-up but that means Lavarnway is out and I was hoping to see what Lavarnway could do this year in part time duty behind Saltalmacchia.  I’ve heard rumors out there that Salty could potential be traded and that scares me a little because a) Ross isn’t a full time catcher and b) so isn’t Lavarnway yet in his career.  Let’s say Salty is the starter, Lavarnway is in AAA and Ross is the back-up then they picked up a very quality back-up.  While old, 36 by opening day, part time duties will keep him healthy.  He’s hit .270 the last 4 years and got on base at a pretty good clip too (.353).  He averages 166 plate appearances which is about 55+ games.  Has a little pop and is a really good defender.

My prediction – 40 games, .250 AVG., .330 OBP., 800 SLG., 40 hits, 9 2B, 10 HR, 25 RBI, no stolen bases, 15 BB’s.

Jonny Gomes (OF – most likely LF)

Another puzzling addition as I believe there were better options out there (Swisher, Bourn, etc.) and he can’t hit righties all that well.  I like him as a platoon player with either Nava or Kalish (preferably Kalish) in LF.  I’ve always thought of him as a Sox killer as I have many moments of him in my head either beating the Sox with his fists or a clutch HR. He’s been mostly a part-time player his entire career and has been pretty consistent in that role.  Last year he blasted 18 HR in only 99 games in the spacious Oakland Coliseum so that has potential to be huge for the Sox with a short porch in LF.  As I stated before his righty/lefty splits are very concerning as he’s a .284 hitter vs. LHP and only a .223 vs. RHP.  His slugging and on base percentage is better and I believe he’ll see playing time vs. LHP most of the time.  If someone gets injured (I’m looking at you Ellsbury), he’ll see more time but struggle at times vs. righties.  I look at him like a poor mans Cody Ross, though we could see an offensive explosion with a move to Fenway Park.

My prediction – 95 games, .245 AVG., .330 OBP., .840 SLG., 85 hits, 15 2B, 1 3B, 19 HR, 50 RBI, no stolen bases, 40 BB’s.

Mike Napoli (POSSIBLY) (1B / C)

Since this deal is still up in the air, I won’t spend a lot of time on it.  If it goes through I think it gives the Sox a good right handed power hitter to compliment Ortiz and Middlebrooks.  It also handcuffs them in that he’s not experienced at 1B and he’s not all that great there.  They’ll suffer a bit on the defensive side but should add some pop in the middle of their order.  I also worry about his health as he’s missed parts of almost every season he’s been in.  I get that he was a catcher most of his career and that he should stay healthier at 1B but with the hold up over the contract and the potential hip issues I worry about signing him to a 3 year deal with a potential that big of a injury risk.  If he is signed and can play 140+ games I see big things out of him.

My prediction – 145 games, .262 AVG., .355 OBP., .910 SLG., 155 hits, 25 2B, 0 3B, 35 HR, 98 RBI, no stolen bases, 70 BB’s.

If they don’t sign Napoli, I’d like to see them go after a guy like Michael Morse (via a trade with Washington) as he’s younger, better at 1B and I think an overall better hitter (better all around power).  If not Morse, then possibly a defensive first type of first basemen like Casey Kotchman or even Lyle Overbay to an extent.

Since the offseason isn’t concluded yet, I’m sure you’ll see a New Additions part 2 post soon.